Report: Cheap Natural Gas Poised to Roil PJM Power Market
The flood of cheap Marcellus Shale gas driving massive construction of new natural gas power generation capacity could wreak havoc in the PJM power market, Moody’s Investors Service suggests in a new report.
Two of the nation’s largest power markets, Texas and California, already pose a “distressed environment” for unregulated power companies owing to declining market prices, the credit ratings agency said. Now, a glut of new gas generation in PJM—where new plants are expected to add up to 100 TWh, boosting gas power capacity 25%, by 2021—is poised to increase supply “amid little prospect of growth in demand,” it said.
The agency noted that PJM’s latest forecast report indicates load growth has declined over the last decade, with system load falling to 790 TWh in 2015 from 822 TWh in 2005. Peak demand has also fallen to 143 GW in 2015 from 154 GW in 2005. “Over the past few years PJM has also repeatedly cut its forecasts, and the grid operator currently projects weather-adjusted peak demand growth of only 0.2% per year over the next 10 years,” the report says.…
