Wind power capacity in the U.S., whose explosive growth has tripled since 2008—even overtaking hydropower to become the nation’s largest source of renewable electricity—could face a period of stagnation once the production tax credit (PTC) is phased out in 2021.

Analysts at WINDPOWER 2018 in Chicago last week called the period between 2021 and 2026 the “valley of death,” and though forecasts vary, many expect that new onshore wind capacity additions will slow if not grind to a halt. That’s despite a number of market drivers wind power has enjoyed recently.

According to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), which hosts the annual wind industry conference, 89.4 GW of wind power from 54,000 wind turbines was installed in the U.S. by the end of the first quarter of 2018. Another 33.5 GW was under construction or in advanced development.

A Certain Dip But When?

Max Cohen, an associate director for IHS Markit’s North American Integrated Energy Research arm, introduced the phrase “valley of death” in one of the first sessions at the conference.…

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